So I was sitting on my couch flipping through sports news yesterday when this bowl game matchup popped up in my feed. Figured it’d be fun to see how my old college buddies’ guesses stacked against those fancy computer algorithms everyone’s raving about these days.
Digging Up The Predictions
First thing I did was grab my laptop and start hunting down what the so-called experts were saying. Scrolled through like ten different sports sites where these analysts make their picks. Took me nearly two hours to copy-paste all their game-by-game predictions into this messy spreadsheet I threw together.
Then came the computer part. Got into this rabbit hole of sports analytics sites running simulations. Wrote down the win probability percentages for each matchup from four different computer models – some looked like they were made by math geniuses, others seemed suspiciously simple.
My Comparison Method
Stared at my screen trying to make sense of it all. Ended up creating two new columns:
- Experts’ consensus: If over 70% picked the same team, that became their official pick
- Computer gang: Only counted it if at least three computer models agreed
Then the real fun began – making giant red X’s on my spreadsheet whenever they disagreed. Took three cups of coffee to get through all 41 bowl games they’d predicted.
Weird Stuff I Noticed
Couple things jumped out at me while I was doing this:
- Computers love underdogs way more than humans do. Experts kept picking favorites while computers went wild with upsets
- That Pop-Tarts Bowl game? All four computer models picked against human experts. One even gave the underdog an 80% chance!
- Felt weird seeing how some “expert” picks looked totally random – like they were throwing darts at a board
Most hilarious moment? When I showed my brother and he said “So basically the computers think all us humans are stupid?” Got me thinking – maybe we are.
Takeaway After All This Work
Took me half a Sunday to finish but it was worth it. Main lesson? Those analysts on TV talking all confident? Half the time they’re just guessing like the rest of us. The computers aren’t perfect either though – one model had a team winning that didn’t even qualify for bowl season! Think next time I’ll just flip coins for predictions.
