Getting Started
Kicked things off this morning scrolling through MLB matchups while sipping coffee. Figured I’d try building a home run parlay after last week’s failed attempt. Grabbed my notebook, fired up the laptop, and started hunting for today’s best shots.
The Simple Strategy I Used
Stuck to three basic rules based on my own trial-and-error:
- Ballpark matters most: Looked for hitter-friendly stadiums like Great American Ball Park or Camden Yards
- Pitcher weakness: Targeted starters with high fly-ball rates over last 5 games
- Hot streaks only: Only considered batters with 3+ homers in past week
Checked the lineup drops first thing. Noticed three names popping up everywhere in my research:
- Pete Alonso (Mets) crushing lefties lately
- Mike Trout (Angels) facing a rookie pitcher with 2.3 HR/9
- Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) at Camden Yards – that place is launching pad
Building the Parlay
Logged into my sportsbook around noon ET. Picked Alonso/Trout/Henderson each to homer. Odds came back at +1100 – made sense since hitting three homers in different games is tough. Threw $25 on it just like I always do for these experiments. Screenshotted the bet slip and tweeted it out for accountability.
Watching the Games Unfold
Almost screamed when Alonso blasted one in the 3rd inning. Got hyped too early though – Trout struck out twice before flying out deep in the 7th. Felt that pit in my stomach when Henderson lined out to center in the 8th. Another busted parlay.
What I Learned This Time
Wind direction blew my strategy: Camden had 10mph gusts blowing in today – didn’t check weather reports close enough. Also learned hot streaks can freeze instantly – Trout looked completely off timing at the plate. My takeaway? Ballpark and pitcher stats get you halfway, but baseball always finds ways to screw you. Still think the strategy has legs though – just need more patience with batter selection.
